Monday, May 3, 2010

Pete Alcorn on the world in 2200

By Jake M.

Everyone has different visions of the future, some people wish to start a family, others want to be successful in there career and many people want to be happy. But think about the future from a different view; will the world be able to take care of generation after generation? Or will it be like a crowded English room with not enough Mac books for everyone? I believe that for the future of the 23rd Century that the Malthusian theory is inaccurate and will not bring ugly things for the world Centuries from now.

Pete Alcorn first tells us that he was once a Malthusian, a person who believe that "Exploding population, small planet, it's going to lead to ugly things". He shares with us his very optimistic view of the world two centuries from now when declining populations and world breakthroughs will make the Malthusian theory a factor that won't affect the future. Alcorn shares this with us by stating "a declining population is going to have at least two very beneficial economic effects." This being that less people on a fixed amount of land will make investing in property a bad bet but it will end up taking a heavy burden off the worlds poor." Second "a declining population will bring scarce labor which result in wage increases that also lifts the burden on the poor and the working class." We also see a more optimistic side of Alcorn when he states "I'm not talking about a radical drop in population like we saw in the Black Death." This is telling us that we do not need a deadly Pandemic killing an estimated 75 to 100 million people to see these benefits in the next two centuries to come. later Alcorn shares with us that in the future, "if we remain positive we can accelerate past the cliff and avoid the dangerous times of transitions". Overall Pete Alcorn has a very optimistic talk of what he thinks of the world two centuries from now and uses this as an idealization of the world in 2200.

Some of the delivery skills Pete Alcorn uses effectively in his presentation by getting the viewers attention is his personal thoughts. Alcorn first tell his viewers that he once believed in Malthusian theory and told us in a tone that Alcorn seemed disappointed in himself and ashamed of having such a belief, although then he shares with us that he has passed Malthusian theory in a very optimistic point of view as he thinks of the world in 2200 as a new enlightenment.
From listening to this talk, I feel that Pete Alcorn's talk about the world in 2200 is inaccurate. I believe this for a number of reasons. Technology will improve where it will help enhanced the way we live. For example, robots can help us gather resources, build houses, and be useful tools. We will be able to travel to places faster and be able to leave Earth more frequently: "you never known we can have a 401 going towards Mars". Next life expectancy will increase as medicine will improve so we will not have a dramatic change in population like the "Black Death." These reasons are why Alcorn's statements on scarce labour and eclining population are indeed inaccurate as technology will be the majority of the work force and medicine will be so advanced, life expectancy will be at a much higher rate.

At the end of the day Pete Alcorn ideal of the future is very optimistic considering he was once a Malthusian. His talk brought hope to the less fortunate and knocked Malthus right out of the picture on his view of the future in 2200. I recommended this video to anyone interested in the future of this world.

1 comment:

  1. Jake, your first paragraph literally made me 'lol'. Love the Mac book connection. I hardly ever get a Mac book. :'[